International oil prices turn from rising to falling

As investors took profits after oil prices rose, international crude oil futures prices rose in the overnight market. On the 6th, intraday fluctuations weakened and turned from up to down. At the close, international oil prices fell. The analysis pointed out that although the bulls are trying to continue to push up oil prices, the possibility of oil prices rising in the next few days is not high. Domestic oil prices will also usher in a period of adjustment.

As of the close of the day, light sweet crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $0.37 to close at $118.50 a barrel, or 0.31%. Brent crude futures in London for August delivery fell 21 cents, or 0.18%, to settle at $119.51 a barrel.

According to Reuters, Saudi Aramco raised the premium of July sales of light sweet crude oil to Asia over Oman/Dubai crude futures by $2.1/bbl to $6.5/bbl, above market expectations of $1.5/bbl. barrel around.

Only some OPEC+ members have spare oil capacity, and OPEC+ is expected to increase production by around 160,000 bpd and 170,000 bpd in July and August, respectively, analysts at JPMorgan said.

Citigroup and Barclays raised their forecasts for international oil prices in 2022 and 2023, respectively, predicting that Russian oil production and exports will fall by 1 million barrels per day to around 1.5 million barrels per day by the end of this year.

Michael Boutros, senior strategist at DailyFX, a foreign exchange information agency, said that although the market focus remains bullish and bulls try to continue to push oil prices higher, the rise in oil prices in the next few days may be fragile. Nearest resistance for oil prices in New York is now $121.60 a barrel, and a break above this year’s previous highs would be needed before a shock to 2008’s all-time highs is possible.

Regarding domestic oil prices, the analysis pointed out that the domestic oil price cycle statistics have exceeded half, the oil price has risen for 5 consecutive working days, maintaining a rise of 300 yuan / ton, and the crude oil change rate is 6.41%. Next Tuesday (24:00 on June 14) will face a new round of oil price adjustment, the current forecast will have a high probability of rising. As of June 7, the cumulative increase in the oil price forecast is 305 yuan / ton, which is equivalent to an increase of 0.23-0.26 yuan / liter. Based on 50 liters, it will cost about 12 yuan more to fill up.