As the countdown to the last four weeks of 2024 approaches, we will usher in a series of important data and meetings next week, which will also set the tone for the final performance of various global markets this year.
First, global central banks will enter the interest rate cycle again. The European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce interest rate decisions next week, and the market’s expectations for each of them vary greatly. Among them, the European Central Bank is very likely to continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but considering that the two largest economies in the euro zone, Germany and France, are both in political turmoil, it may be difficult to restore market confidence in the euro with Lagarde’s policies alone.
The Bank of Canada has the greatest uncertainty, and the swap market expects that they are close to a 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut next week. The Reserve Bank of Australia will basically maintain the existing policy interest rate unchanged.