WTO: Global trade in goods may improve in the second quarter of this year

Global trade in goods remained sluggish in the first quarter of 2023 and is likely to improve in the second quarter, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said in a report released on May 31.

The latest Trade in Goods Barometer released by the WTO shows the global trade in goods sentiment index at 95.6, below the benchmark of 100, but slightly up from 92.2 released in March this year.

Among the component indexes, the automobile product index was 110.8, which continued to be stable above the trend level; The export orders index came in at 102.7, slightly above trend; The raw materials index was 99.0. In addition, the container transport index, air freight index, electronic components index continued to show weakness, all below trend. ‘Positive and negative indicators are mixed, which makes it difficult to predict the short-term trade outlook,’ the report said.

According to the report, export orders picked up recently and demand for goods increased in the second quarter of 2023. The WTO’s previous forecast that the volume of global trade in goods will grow by 1.7% in 2023 is expected to be fulfilled.

According to the compiling rules of the Global Goods Trade climate Index, the value 100 is its base point. A reading of 100 indicates that global trade in goods is growing in line with medium-term trend expectations. An index greater than 100 indicates a higher than expected growth in global trade in goods during the quarter, while the opposite indicates a lower than expected growth in global trade in goods.

The WTO first released the Global Trade Climate Index in July 2016. By collecting trade statistics of major economies, it provides early signals on the current short-term development trend of world trade and provides more timely international trade information for trade policymakers and the business community.